Democrats poised to keep control of Colorado maps
According to an analysis of the plans published Monday, the newest draught maps of Colorado’s new state Senate and House districts would make it impossible for Republicans to challenge Democratic dominance of the legislature.
According to a study by impartial staff, the 35-seat state Senate would contain 15 safe Democratic districts, 10 safe Republican districts, and 10 contested districts under the revised maps.
Five of the contested districts, though, lean Democratic, making it tough for Republicans to retake control of the chamber – their greatest chance at reversing four years of Democratic rule at the Capitol.
Under the revised designs, the state House would have 33 safe Democratic districts, 21 safe Republican districts, and 11 contested districts, for a total of 65 members.
Two of the contested districts are heavily favored by Democrats, making it seem doubtful that the GOP would gain the 11 seats need to retake control of the House.
For years, Colorado has been leaning blue as the number of registered Republican voters has decreased and the number of unaffiliated voters has increased.
The redistricting process is seen by Republicans as a chance to reclaim some territory in the state legislature.
The Colorado Republican Party’s executive director, Joe Jackson, stated, “We concur with the judgment given by others in the media that this map would regularly produce a Democrat majority in the State House and State Senate.
” “There is still a long way to go in this process, and we are hopeful that the commission will strive to create more competitive districts.”
A lobbyist for the Republican-leaning Colorado Neighborhood Coalition, Alan Philp, concurred.
“From a political standpoint, the maps represent an improvement over the 2011 maps in terms of the number of contested districts, but there is still space for improvement,” Philp said.
The Colorado Democratic Party expressed worry on Monday that the proposed Senate map will offer Republicans an “unfair advantage,” noting areas in which Democratic incumbents facing re-election in 2022 are put in the same district as Republican incumbents facing re-election in 2024.
“For the interest of justice, the commission staff must comprehend the ramifications of designing maps without taking into consideration the state senators’ overlapping four-year mandates.
When Coloradans passed Amendment Z, they wanted fair redistricting, and this plan falls short of that objective, according to David Pourshoushtari, a spokesperson for the Colorado Democratic Party.
“It’s not so much about the incumbents as it is about how the seats are staggered,” Pourshoushtari said, adding that “going into 2022, there are three seats right there that may allow Republicans… three seats to win a state Senate majority.”
The maps published on Monday are the first to be created by nonpartisan redistricting staff, and they are based on a decade of demographic shifts recorded in 2020 census data.
They also contain criteria sought by members of the Independent Legislative Redistricting Commission, as well as feedback from more than two dozen public hearings conducted throughout the state.
The panel, which was established by Amendments Y and Z passing in 2018, has until Oct. 11 to complete the maps and submit them to the Colorado Supreme Court by Oct. 15.
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The legislative commission has a methodology that determines political competitiveness by averaging election outcomes from eight statewide elections from 2016 to 2020.
The difference between the percentage of votes cast for a Republican candidate and the percentage of votes cast for a Democratic contender is the measure.
A district is considered competitive by nonpartisan staff if no party has a lead of more than 8.5 percentage points.
A district is considered leaning in favor of a political party if it has a 5 percentage point lead, according to the Colorado Sun.
Candidates for the United States House of Representatives do not have to reside in the district they represent, but candidates for the state legislature do.
That implies that unless incumbents and candidates are prepared to relocate or fight a colleague in a primary, changes to the districts may rule them out of the race.
According to a Colorado Sun study of the proposed Senate plan, at least 14 incumbent senators would be in the same district as another senator.
In addition, at least 16 state House incumbents would be drawn into the same district as another legislator.
The districts will alter in the future.
By Sept. 23, nonpartisan workers will design a new version of the House and Senate maps.
The amount of modification to the maps will be determined by the feedback received during the panel’s public hearings this Friday and Saturday, as well as any additional criteria established by the 12-member commission.
At a meeting on Tuesday at noon, commissioners will hear a presentation and debate the most recent proposed maps.
State Senate
Senate districts in Colorado have been suggested.
Based on 2020 census data, nonpartisan legislative staff suggested a plan for new state Senate districts, with a target population of 164,963 per district.
The Legislative Commission uses an average of results from eight statewide elections to determine political competitiveness. A competitive district is one with a difference of 8.5 percent or less.
Instead of dividing the Eastern Plains between two Senate districts, as the current Senate map does, the
proposed state Senate plan would place the majority of the area, as well as the eastern parts of Adams and
Arapahoe counties, in Senate District 3.
Senate District 35 would include completely Pueblo County, whereas Senate District 7 would encompass the six
San Luis Valley counties and contain both the Southern Ute and Ute Mountain Ute, tribes.
Senate District 5 would keep the Roaring Fork Valley intact.
The proposed plan contains 12 districts where Hispanic people would account for a quarter or more of the total
population, as well as one district, Senate District 21, where Hispanic residents would account for slightly more
than half of the entire population.
Because it contains two incumbents elected in 2020, Democratic Sen. Dominick Moreno of Commerce City and Republican Sen.
Kevin Priola of Henderson, the proposed Senate District 25 in Adams County will almost certainly need to be modified.
Jeremiah Barry, the redistricting commission’s staff attorney, stated, “We received some late public suggestions that Brighton should maintain intact in a Senate district.” “An adjustment to the initial staff plan will be required.”
This is because state law mandates incumbent senators to complete their full four-year term, even if redistricting moves them out of the district they were elected to.
The parliamentary commission has established a regulation that allows staff to redraw maps to prevent a dispute between two “holdover” senators in the same district.
In District 16, which spans from Jefferson County’s mountains south and east to Douglas County, a fight between
Republican Sen. Jim Smallwood of Parker and Democratic Sen.
Tammy Story of Evergreen is expected.
Senate District 2 has two Republican incumbents, Sen. Bob Gardner of Colorado Springs and Sen. Dennis Hisey of Fountain. Next year, both are up for re-election.
Senate incumbents running for reelection next year in two other districts were assigned to a district with an
an incumbent who would serve until 2024.
Because incumbents must serve their full term under state law, anyone seeking reelection would be effectively thrown out of office.
If the draught map is approved, Colorado Springs Democrat Pete Lee, who is up for reelection in 2022, would be
pushed out of office because he will be place into the same district as Republican Sen.
Larry Liston, who is not up for reelection until 2024.
And Wheat Ridge Democrat Sen. Jessie Danielson would be compelled to resign because the proposed map would put her in the same district as Arvada Democrat Sen. Rachel Zenzinger, whose term expires in 2025.
Senators from the other two districts with two incumbents are unable to compete for reelection next year due to term limitations.
Sen. Don Coram of Montrose would be assigned to District 6 with Sen. Ray Scott of Grand Junction, who is serving his second term and is not eligible to compete for re-election. They’re both Republicans.
Senator Bob Rankin, R-Carbondale, assign to Senate District 5, which is now represent by Sen. Kerry Donovan, a Vail Democrat who is not eligible to compete for re-election.
The map would result in five Senate seats becoming vacant:
Douglas County’s District 4 has a Republican majority of 23.7 percent.
District 8 in northwest Colorado has a Republican majority of 18.4 percent.
Colorado Springs District 10 has a Republican majority of 30.3 percent.
El Paso County’s District 12 has a 3.6 percent Republican edge.
Adams County’s District 21 has a Democratic majority of 29%.
With a 30.3 percent Democratic edge in west Denver and eastern Jefferson County, District 22 is the most Democratic district in the state.
With a 23.9 percent Democratic edge across Broomfield, Jefferson, Adams, and Boulder counties, District 23 is the most Democratic district in the state.
State House.
House districts in Colorado suggest.
Based on 2020 census data, nonpartisan legislative staff proposed a map for new state House districts, with a target population of 88,826 per district.
The Legislative Commission uses an average of results from eight statewide elections to determine political competitiveness. A competitive district is one with a difference of 8.5 percent or less.
When compelled to divide a county into several districts to meet demographic criteria, nonpartisan staff tried to
emphasize a community of interest. According to a staff study, Eagle County, for example, would be a divide
between House Districts 26 and 57,
but the Roaring Fork Valley area, which contains a tiny part of western Eagle County, would be maintained intact.
Under the revised plan, Steamboat Springs assign to House District 26, while the remainder of Routt
County was assigned to House District 49.
The proposed House map also contains 20 districts where Hispanics account for a quarter or more of the total
population, as well as three districts.
where Hispanics account for more than half of the total population.
Three of the 16 incumbents in the House who would be in the same district as another state lawmaker under the
the proposed plan would be Democrats vs. Republicans.
House District 22, suggested by Republican Rep. Colin Larson of Ken Caryl and Democratic Rep.
Lisa Cutter of Littleton would be a competitive district.
Larson, on the other hand, is seriously contemplating a run for the United States House of Representatives next year.
The projected House District 12, which would be a safe Democratic district, would include Democratic Rep. Tracey Bernett of Longmont and Republican Rep. Dan Woog of Erie.
Both are in their first year in office.
According to a neutral staff analysis, Democratic Rep. Marc Snyder of Manitou Springs and Republican Rep.
Terri Carver of Colorado Springs would both fall within the new House District 20, where Republicans have a 9.2
percentage point lead. However, Carver’s tenure ends in 2022.
Meanwhile, incumbents from the same political party would Pitt against one other in five other planned districts.
Republicans in their first term in Congress Stephanie Luck of Penrose and Ron Hanks of Canon City are candidates for House District 60, which would include all of Fremont and Custer counties as well as a part of Pueblo.
Rep. Karen McCormick, a Longmont Democrat, and Rep. Judy Amabile, a Boulder Democrat, would both reside in the new House District 13. Both are in their first year in office.
District 24 is represented by Wheat Ridge’s Monica Duran and Arvada’s Lindsey Daugherty, both Democrats.
Kerry Tipper and Chris Kennedy, both Democrats from Lakewood, represent District 28.
Kim Ransom and Mark Baisley, both Republicans from Littleton, are in the same district, although she is term-limited.
The following seats would be available under the House map:
House District 11, which covers portions of Boulder County and is headquarter in Longmont, has a 28.5 percent Democratic lead.
Colorado Springs-based House District 16 has a 1.3 percent Democratic edge.
House District 23 in Jefferson County has a Democratic majority of 16.1 percent.
HOME District 25 in Jefferson County has a Democratic majority of 9%.
House District 37, which includes Centennial, Cherry Creek, and Littleton in Arapahoe County, is a competitive district with a 7% Democratic edge.
House District 44 in Douglas County has a Republican majority of 20.5 percent.
HOME District 48 in Larimer and Weld counties has a Republican majority of 23.9 percent.
House District 63 in Adams and Weld counties has a Republican majority of 20.4 percent.
What’s next
On Friday and Saturday, the Legislative Redistricting Commission will conduct three virtual public hearings to get
input on the proposed maps.
The number of people who may talk restrict to the first 40 people who sign up in advance.
Although public comments are still being taken online, these are the legislative commission’s last public hearings.
The following are the hearings scheduled for this week:
6 p.m. to 9 p.m. through Zoom on Friday
10:00 a.m. – 1:00 p.m. through Zoom on Saturday
6 p.m. to 9 p.m. through Zoom on Saturday
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SOURCE:
Democrats poised to keep control of Colorado legislature under latest draft redistricting maps
