The Fed Is Planning a March Rate Hike and Substantial Balance-Sheet Shrinkage Following That
It is expected that the Fed will begin raising interest rates in early March, followed by a significant reduction in its balance sheet in April.
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve announced that interest rates would begin to climb in March, just as the central bank’s emergency bond-buying programme comes to an end.
Federal Reserve officials have also provided some fresh but hazy information on their plans to reduce the $9 trillion balance sheet, which has doubled since the beginning of the epidemic and equals over 40% of US gross domestic product since the beginning of the pandemic in 2008.
S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indexes all lost ground as Fed Chairman Jerome Powell voiced increased worries about inflation and growing uncertainty about economic growth at a news conference.
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The rate rises and “quantitative tightening” will come, regardless of Omicron’s impact on GDP or the protracted epidemic that leaves the overall picture hazy. A more aggressive tightening is possible, given Powell’s reluctance to affirm that the Fed would keep to quarterly hikes of one quarter-point.
Jeffries chief economist Aneta Markowska says, “We retain our base case for four rises this year, but we now consider it as a floor rather than a limit.” As a result of the Fed’s inaction, “the market has essentially priced in even more.”
According to Matthew Sherwood, global economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit, the Fed may have little option but to resort to harsher medication in order to put the inflation genie back in the bottle.
They agreed that it is appropriate at this time to provide information about their planned approach to “significantly reducing” the size of the Fed’s portfolio in a special statement separate from their normal policy announcement, the Fed’s policy-setting arm, or Federal Open Market Committee, said members. Investors were alarmed earlier this month when minutes from the Fed’s December meeting indicated that conversations about the balance sheet were under way and that members preferred an earlier and more aggressive pace than in the past.
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The partial reversal of quantitative easing undertaken in response to the epidemic has some economists and strategists thinking that balance-sheet contraction may this time be more crucial than rate rises. To allay rising market worries that it would liquidate assets rather than cease reinvesting profits when securities run off, the Fed made a statement on Wednesday, assuring them that the process would continue in an orderly manner.
By modifying principal payments reinvested from assets held in the System Open Market Account (SOMA), the FOMC expects to gradually diminish the Federal Reserve’s holdings of securities “over time in a predictable way,” according to the statement.
However, the announcement also fueled fears that the company’s balance sheet run-off would begin far earlier than expected by investors. Two years after interest rates started rising, QT was last seen. According to a statement, the participants agreed that once the process began, reductions in the target ranges of federal funds rates would begin.It is possible that balance-shrinkage might begin at any moment after March, although authorities are set to meet in March and May to continue discussing proposals. For the last several weeks now, Wall Street has been planning for balance-sheet contraction to begin in or after July.
The Fed’s balance sheet and broader tightening intentions continue to raise more concerns than they do answers. In the words of Bleakley Advisory Group chief investment officer Peter Boockvar, “We’re winging it.” “Good luck to us all!”
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Powell acknowledged this, stating that policymakers understand how interest rates affect the economy and financial markets better than they do balance sheet changes…As a result of the epidemic and Omicron’s devastating effect on growth and supply chains, Powell acknowledged the high degree of economic uncertainty.
Incoming economic data and changes in the economic outlook will determine monetary policy, Powell said. Since the previous tightening, the job market has improved and inflation has gotten hotter, he told investors. According to the Fed’s mission, both of these factors call for a gradual shift away from the very accommodating policy that was put in place in response to the epidemic.
He also warned of concerns about price stability as he spoke of hazards to growth. Inflation has undoubtedly become worse since the December FOMC meeting. There has been a long-term trend, Powell added. He noted that “we will finally receive respite on the supply side,” noting that fiscal policy’s growth-inducing effects will be reversed this year.
This is what we’re finding out: it’s going to take much, much longer. Inflation might become more persistent as a result of this.
For the time being, the Fed is unlikely to be swayed by poor economic data or negative market reaction. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell remarked that “we need another protracted expansion, which needs price stability and the Fed doing its share to get back to its 2% inflation target.”
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source: barrons
