Tropical Storm Ida is forming in the Caribbean and may make landfall in the United States as a hurricane.
Tropical Storm Ida has developed in the Caribbean Sea, raising the possibility of a major hurricane hitting the US by the end of this weekend or early next week.
The precise location and timing of the event are yet unknown, but these details are anticipated to become
clearer after the system’s core is discovered, perhaps later Thursday.
“The base of the [storm] will pass near to the Caymans tonight, the Isla of Young and Western Cuba on Friday.
then travel out across southeast and southern Gulf coast on Friday night and Saturday,” according to the National Hurricane Center.
The storm was approximately 100 miles west of Negril, Jamaica, around 5 p.m. ET. It had a maximum sustained wind speed of 40 miles per hour.
Also, The system is expected to reach the US’s northern Gulf Coast on Sunday, according to the National Hurricane Center.
The Caymans and western Cuba are now under tropical storm warnings.
Also, Storm surge conditions are anticipated anywhere inside the warning region within 36 hours, according to a tropical storm warning.
The system is anticipated to continue to develop over the following several days, and it is likely to become
a tropical storm by Thursday night.
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The National Weather Service in Lake Charles, Louisiana, stated Thursday that “generally, (computer prediction) models have grown in agreement with the course.
concentrating on the northern Texas coast and the coast of Louisiana.”
Due to the anticipated effects and continued development of Tropical Storm Ida, Louisiana Governor John Bel Edwards issued a state of emergency on Thursday.
“Unfortunately, the whole coastline of Louisiana is presently in the predicted cone for Tropical Storm Ida,
which is intensifying and may make landfall as a major hurricane in Louisiana due to favourable Gulf
conditions for fast development.
Now is the moment for individuals to complete their emergency plans, which should include
considerations for the current COVID-19 epidemic “In a statement, Edwards added.
Where there is a lot of trusts
Because the circumstances are favourable for tropical storm development, there is a good chance that this
the system will intensify into a hurricane.
“Conditions are anticipated to be favourable for further strengthening as the storm enters the Gulf of
Mexico,” the NHC stated. “Rapid intensification is clearly indicated in the NHC prediction between 48 and
72 hours.”
Also, “When it reaches the northern Gulf coast on Sunday, the NHC intensity prediction puts the storm a
major hurricane strength.”
Storms are becoming more intense and frequent.” “
Because of this prediction and consensus on strengthening across computer forecast models, there is a
higher-than-normal chance of a strengthening tropical storm passing over the Gulf this weekend.
“Where there is a lack of trust“
This storm is expected to reach the northern Gulf Coast on Sunday at or near major hurricane strength,” the National Hurricane Center stated.
“However, prediction uncertainty is higher than normal since the system is still developing.”
Unfortunately, there is still a lot of ambiguity about the precise course of the thunderstorm cluster.
Also, The storm may hit anywhere from eastern Texas to eastern Louisiana, according to computer
prediction models and current NHC thinking.
One explanation for the uncertainty is the strength of a high-pressure region in the upper atmosphere.
According to the National Weather Service in Houston, this high pressure will aid in the steering of any
hurricanes that do develop. The storm will be steered westward into Texas if the high becomes stronger or
moves westward. If the high weakens or moves eastward, the storm will follow suit and move eastward
towards Louisiana.
Another major stumbling block to track prediction reliability is the location of the storm’s centre of
circulation. It’s simply a swarm of thunderstorms right now, with no central circulation.
“Until the system consolidates and becomes more defined,” the NHC stated, “some track changes are
anticipated.”
Why is it important to locate the centre?
Finding the circulation’s core should help with forecasting.
“Computer prediction models stretch out the central location of a low-pressure system over time,”
meteorologist Chad Myers said.
“Without knowing precisely where a storm is or how powerful it is from the start, the ultimate location
and intensity may be wildly incorrect at times.”
According to Myers, if the centre is 25 miles off from the start, the three-day prediction may be wrong by
a hundred miles or more.
Also, The data included in the models represent the best estimate of the location of the centre. An aircraft
will go out to examine the disturbance in the Caribbean by Thursday evening. It will then offer crucial
data that will be absorbed into the models.
This will offer meteorologists a better idea of where the storm will travel when it will arrive, and how
powerful it will be.
Also, “There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge, destructive hurricane-force winds.
and heavy rains throughout the northern Gulf Coast Sunday and Monday from the Florida Panhandle to the upper Texas coast.
with the highest risk near the coast of Louisiana,” the National Hurricane Center said.
Source:
Tropical Storm Ida forms in the Caribbean, could hit US as a hurricane
